The global decline in listed companies has long concerned policymakers, with IPOs becoming scarcer while private equity and corporate takeovers remove firms from public markets. Despite the US having seen the number of listed companies halve since 2000, could SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO signal a reversal? Valued at more than $1.8tn, the listing demonstrates that investors remain willing to provide enormous amounts of capital to high-growth businesses. With OpenAI and Anthropic also expected to pursue public listings, the artificial intelligence boom could create a new wave of IPOs as companies seek funding for rapidly expanding data-centre and computing infrastructure.

In particular, this shift reflects a broader change in how developed economies finance growth. Private equity has expanded dramatically, from roughly $500bn-$600bn in the early 2000s to over $7.5tn in 2026, allowing companies to remain private for longer. AI is now reversing part of this trend by creating a highly capital-intensive investment cycle requiring substantial equity and debt financing; however, Europe risks missing this opportunity. The UK has lost technology listings to New York, while domestic pension funds have sharply reduced their exposure to UK equities, from over 50% in 2001 to less than 5% today, weakening a natural source of demand for new listings.

Yet policymakers should be cautious about assuming that weaker IPO activity necessarily means inadequate access to capital. In the US, public companies’ aggregate market capitalisation, profits, revenues and investment have all increased substantially despite the fall in their number. This suggests that consolidation, rather than simply excessive regulation, has driven much of the decline. For the UK, therefore, the priority should not be a race towards weaker listing standards, but creating conditions that encourage entrepreneurship and investment. SpaceX may herald a new IPO cycle, but whether Europe benefits will depend less on financial deregulation than on its own ability to generate companies worth listing in the first place.

- Muthu Ramanathan

Global shipping costs have surged as war and climate change disrupt some of the world’s most important maritime routes, raising concerns over higher consumer prices and increasingly fragile supply chains. Freight rates through the Panama Canal, Rhine, Red Sea and Black Sea have all risen sharply, while the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced vessels to take longer and more expensive routes. The cost of shipping oil from the Gulf to Asia reached $15.22 per barrel on 10th August, the highest level recorded by Argus, highlighting the scale of the disruption.

Not just conflict, but now climate-related disruptions are adding to the pressure. Drought has reduced water levels along the Rhine, restricting the movement of goods serving Germany’s industrial heartland, while low water levels and heavy traffic have pushed Panama Canal transit costs to record highs of $1.1mn and $2.5mn. Meanwhile, conflict has compounded these problems by redirecting vessels and increasing demand for alternative routes. Container freight rates from the Far East to the US East Coast have consequently risen 234% year-on-year to $10,249 per 40-foot container.

However, the economic consequences extend far beyond the shipping industry. This is because higher freight costs raise the cost of transporting energy, raw materials and finished goods, increasing pressure on manufacturers and potentially feeding into inflation, as companies may ultimately pass these costs on to consumers. More importantly, the disruption highlights how a small number of global chokepoints can give countries disproportionate influence over international trade. As geopolitical tensions and climate volatility become more persistent, shipping is increasingly becoming a source of macroeconomic risk. As a result, for businesses and investors, the ability to build resilient supply chains may become as important as minimising business costs.

- Shrish Yalamarti

Private credit’s credit quality is deteriorating just as the asset class’s growth accelerates. The default rate for U.S. private credit loans hit a record 6% in the 12 months ended April 30, Fitch Ratings found. Where prior stress episodes centred on direct lenders and business development companies, the latest wave of concern is shifting toward a different transmission channel: insurers. 

Barclays found private credit holdings at U.S. life insurers grew more than 20% in 2025, reaching roughly 10% of total assets and exceeding 15% at private-equity-affiliated insurers such as Apollo-backed Athene and KKR-backed Global Atlantic. The concentration has drawn direct scrutiny from Washington: The Treasury Department has assembled a dedicated team to assess insurer exposure to the asset class. 

Multilateral regulators have echoed the concern. The International Monetary Fund has warned that insurers holding leveraged private credit instruments could face larger-than-expected losses during periods of stress. The Financial Stability Board went further in a May report, warning that the sector’s complexity, leverage and interconnectedness, including reliance on private ratings amid valuation opacity, could amplify stress in adverse scenarios. 

None of this has slowed the asset class’s expansion. Assets under management are set to exceed $2 trillion in 2026 and approach $4 trillion by 2030, according to Moody’s. The result is a market growing fastest in the corner of the financial system regulators can see least clearly, with insurers, rather than banks or direct lenders, now the primary channel carrying that risk toward ordinary policyholders.

- Saiee Katarkar

Until next time,

The Long and Short

Markets, Made Sense